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Chris Moyer
Founder & President

Now that both chambers of Congress have passed a budget blueprint—the House yesterday and the Senate early Saturday morning—the focus shifts to the hard part: writing and passing a reconciliation bill that achieves GOP priorities. And one of the biggest questions on the table is whether the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) clean energy tax credits will survive.

Yesterday, four of the Senate’s 53 Republicans released a letter voicing general support for preserving the IRA tax credits.

“While we support fiscal responsibility and prudent efforts to streamline the tax code,” wrote Senators Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), John Curtis (Utah), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), and Jerry Moran (Kansas), “we caution against the full-scale repeal of current credits, which could lead to significant disruptions for the American people and weaken our position as a global energy leader.”

It’s worth reading their full letter, which comes on the heels of a similar letter signed by 21 House Republicans last month, to see how they frame their argument in a Trump-dominated political environment. It’s better than nothing — but I would not count on these four senators to save the day on the tax credits. No one with any interest in preserving the credits should sleep any better at night today because of their letter. The politics and the math just don’t add up, given that Republicans are searching high and low for at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts to pay for the bill. If anything, the letter underscores how precarious the situation really is.

A Misleading Narrative

Media coverage has largely overstated the letter’s significance. Axios, for example, framed it like this (emphasis mine):

“The wholesale dismantling of IRA tax credits in Congress is looking less likely as four GOP senators go public opposing the idea…The letter from Sens. Lisa Murkowski, John Curtis, Thom Tillis and Jerry Moran — if translated into votes — would be enough to sink party-line legislation.”

This is fundamentally misleading.

As I wrote last week, it’s highly unlikely that enough House Republicans will vote against a sweeping reconciliation bill solely because of clean energy tax credits—especially when the bill is expected to include a wide range of GOP priorities: sweeping tax cuts for businesses and households (particularly the wealthy), long-sought conservative reforms to Medicaid, and a host of other provisions that will emerge in the coming months. It will also be President Trump’s top legislative priority.

Anyone betting that these four senators will all vote against that bill solely over clean energy tax credits is likely to be disappointed.

Only 4 Senators Signing On Raises Red Flags

Moreover, the fact that only four Republican senators signed this letter should actually raise concern. Republicans can afford to lose just three votes in the Senate, thanks to their 53–47 majority (with Vice President Vance able to break ties). Let’s take a closer look at the four signatories and how likely they are to buck their party and president on this bill:

Sen. Thom Tillis (NC): Facing re-election in 2026, Tillis is already wary of a primary challenge. He’s viewed with suspicion by the MAGA base and is walking a tightrope in a state that Trump won by less than 4% in 2024. There’s no way Tillis votes against Trump’s top priority later this year. It just won’t happen. It would be political malpractice.

Sen. Jerry Moran (KS): He’s a reliable Republican vote and not up for re-election until 2028, although he’s already declared he’s running again. Voting down Trump’s top priority would undoubtedly earn him a primary challenge and give opponents plenty of time to assemble a serious campaign. Signing this letter gives him cover to say he advocated for business interests in his state—but when it comes to a floor vote, he’ll fall in line.

Sen. John Curtis (UT): He’s a bit of a wild card. He’s spoken about the need for clean energy and has tried to position himself as a pragmatic Republican. But his voting record doesn’t yet match that rhetoric. He may hope to shape the bill behind the scenes, but a “no” vote on final passage still seems unlikely. As Curtis himself put it, “You’ll notice in the letter, there are no demands — there’s no mandates. It’s just a call to be thoughtful, to be careful.”

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (AK): She has real bona fides when it comes to voting against her party. After all, she won a write-in campaign when she sought re-election in 2010 after losing the primary, and the Senate GOP leadership backed her opponent. Since then, she’s never had a reason to be loyal to her party. She voted against GOP efforts during Trump 1.0 to repeal Obamacare. Of the four senators, she is the most likely to spurn Trump and Republican leadership on reconciliation.

Even if Murkowski and Curtis vote “no,” the bill passes in the Senate with room to spare.

Hoping to Avoid the Vote

It’s clear these four senators are hoping they won’t have to vote on gutting clean energy tax credits. They’d prefer to shape the bill during drafting, behind closed doors. But the reality is that Trump and his allies are intent on repealing what he derisively calls the “Green New Scam.” He reaffirmed this goal just days ago, and House Freedom Caucus members were convinced to finally support the budget resolution because “the White House committed to historic spending reductions including, targeting the ‘Green New Scam’ IRA tax credits.”

So while this letter is a positive signal, it does little to change the likely trajectory on its own. If we want these four senators to make the tax credits a red line, we’ll need more public pressure, in-district press events, behind-the-scenes lobbying, and other tactics right up until the day of the final vote.

Until then, no one should rest easy.

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