You Should Actually Read Bill Gates’ Memo

By Chris Moyer 

“There is no CEO who sets the world’s climate priorities or strategies,” Bill Gates declared this week. 

This is true, but Gates might come closest to occupying this perch. His memo has sparked an uproar in the climate community, generated stark headlines about a U-turn, and inspired a wildly inaccurate post from the president that would lead you to believe Gates had abandoned the fight against climate change.

A full reading of the memo makes clear that’s not the case. Gates still sees climate change as a serious threat. But he’s making a notable shift in emphasis—a “strategic pivot,” as he calls it—toward maximizing human welfare in a warming world rather than focusing overwhelmingly on near-term emissions targets.

“Although climate change will have serious consequences—particularly for people in the poorest countries—it will not lead to humanity’s demise,” Gates writes. “The doomsday outlook is causing much of the climate community to focus too much on near-term emissions goals… diverting resources from the most effective things we should be doing to improve life in a warming world.”

“A Lot of People Will Agree With Bill Gates”

The context in which Gates is making this pivot is impossible to overlook. Some see this as yet another rich and powerful person caving to President Trump. Indeed, Gates visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago shortly before he was inaugurated in January and told the Wall Street Journal he was “impressed” by him. 

Gates makes no mention whatsoever of Trump or current policy. The closest he comes to disagreeing with Trump is when he calls on policymakers, in the US and globally, to “protect funding to clean technologies and the policies that promote them.” 

Setting aside Gates’ desire to maintain a good relationship with Trump, the memo strikes me as reflecting a highly practical and sensible approach. Gates writes that “We should measure success by our impact on human welfare more than our impact on the global temperature.” Trying to get the average American to care about a half-degree increase in global temperature has always felt like, at best, a futile exercise—and at worst, a harmful one that risks sounding out of touch with more pressing concerns in people’s lives. 

“I think a lot of people will agree with Bill Gates…The bottom line is just that the climate change message…has not really worked with the American people,” said Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, noting that polls show Americans’ concern about climate change has barely shifted in nearly four decades.

We’ve been arguing that effective climate messaging should avoid alarmism and instead emphasize pocketbook realities like rising electricity bills. Gates isn’t making an electoral case—he’s not a campaign strategist—and he’s thinking on a much longer global timeline than any election cycle. 

His memo lands just ahead of COP30, clearly aimed at shaping the conversation among world leaders. Which is why it’s so notable to see Gates’ framing echo those who argue it’s time to move beyond alarmist rhetoric—not for political gain, but because he believes it’s a better way to improve human welfare in a warming world.

Where Gates May Be Too Optimistic

My biggest critique of his new outlook is the optimism baked into his policy assumptions, which feel harder to justify given the headwinds now facing the country with the world’s largest economy.

He says most new cars will be electric soon, even as federal incentives have been repealed, emissions rules have been revoked and headlines reflect a reversion to ICE vehicles among several automakers: “Detroit shifts back to gas-powered cars and trucks as EV era ends.” He predicts that new approaches to wind power will generate more energy using less land, but it’s fair to ask how many developers, especially offshore, will still be standing in a few years as several face bankruptcy. He foresees far more efficient power lines, yet federal permitting reform, essential for building out transmission at scale, remains elusive.

Why You Should Read the Memo

It’s worth reading the full memo and not relying on headlines. It’s remarkably thoughtful, packed with data that may surprise and challenge conventional wisdom. For example:

• “Ten years ago, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2040, the world would be emitting 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year. Now, just a decade later, the IEA’s forecast has dropped to 30 billion, and it’s projecting that 2050 emissions will be even lower. Read that again: In the past 10 years, we’ve cut projected emissions by more than 40 percent.”
• “Excessively hot weather now causes around 500,000 deaths every year. Despite the impression you’d get from the news, though, the number has been decreasing for some time, chiefly because more people can afford air conditioners. And, surprisingly, excessive cold is far deadlier, killing nearly ten times more people every year than heat does.”
• “The story so far with natural disasters is similar. In the past century, direct deaths from natural disasters, such as drowning during a flood, have fallen 90 percent to between 40,000 and 50,000 people a year, thanks mostly to better warning systems and more-resilient buildings.”

Gates knew this pivot would spark debate. My sense is that he’s confident the right people, including policymakers, advocates, entrepreneurs, philanthropists and investors, will engage with his nuanced arguments and data and ultimately advance the shared goals we’re all working toward.

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