3 Likely Presidential Candidates Are Making Moves on Energy

By Chris Moyer

With the 2025 elections behind us, it’s never too early to look ahead to the 2028 presidential primaries.

OK, maybe it is too early. The 2026 midterms are still a year away, after all. Even so, three governors who have been eyeing 2028 since the moment the 2024 race was called for Donald Trump have all made recent energy moves worth watching. Energy affordability was a major issue in this month’s elections, and all signs suggest it will remain front and center for voters in the next presidential race.

Josh Shapiro Walks Away from RGGI

Let’s start in Harrisburg, where the well-regarded governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, is drawing the ire of climate advocates this week by scrapping the Commonwealth’s membership in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, or RGGI. The  multi-state cap-and-trade program in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic limits carbon dioxide emissions from power plants and requires them to buy allowances for what they emit, using the proceeds to fund clean-energy and efficiency programs.

For Shapiro, RGGI appears to be a bargaining chip in his effort to end a four-month budget impasse with the Republican-led legislature. But his skepticism of the program isn’t new. As a 2021 gubernatorial candidate, he said he had “real concerns about the impact it will have on consumer prices, hurting families at a time when many are struggling really to put food on the table.”

At the time, observers saw that position as aligning with the influential building-trades unions, whose members build and maintain fossil-fuel plants subject to RGGI’s carbon fees. Shapiro has since floated a state-level alternative to RGGI. And while his administration appealed a court ruling that found RGGI to be an unconstitutional tax, the move was framed as defending gubernatorial authority rather than defending RGGI itself.

Shapiro has been focused on costs, both perceived and actual, rather than on any rigid climate ideology. He has spent months hammering PJM for what he describes as a broken process that has pushed electricity prices higher, warning that Pennsylvania could walk away if it is not given a greater voice in PJM’s decisions. His decision on RGGI shows that he sees the political middle as the most promising place to build his future. He is not the kind of candidate who will drift far to the left before moving back to the center for a general election against someone like JD Vance or Marco Rubio. He’s already firmly there.

Most voters do not know what RGGI is, but Republicans have portrayed the  cap-and-trade program as a boondoggle that drives up costs for ordinary Americans. Shapiro will have a strong defense against that charge, even as it comes at the expense of cleaner air for Pennsylvanians. Expect him to highlight his work to lower electricity bills again and again once he is campaigning for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina in a couple of years.

Gavin Newsom Plays “Climate Hero” Abroad

Meanwhile, 4,000 miles south in Brazil, California Governor Gavin Newsom—leader of the world’s fourth-largest economy—is stealing the spotlight at the COP climate talks. Politico reported that Newsom “can’t get out of a meeting or a talk… without being swarmed by reporters and diplomats eager for a quote, a handshake, a photo.” 

Newsom is embracing the role of “climate hero,” seizing the chance to “plant his green flag on an international stage.” As Politico notes, he is leaning into the mantle of climate champion at the very moment his own party is retreating at home and the politics of the issue are shifting rightward.

While he’s staked out progressive positions on climate and clean energy throughout his political career, he notably rolled back the state’s landmark environmental protection law this summer in an effort to address the housing crisis. He’s also supported pro-oil industry measures like delaying a refinery profit cap and approving new drilling. 

As New York Times columnist Ezra Klein recently noted, Newsom “does things that are high risk and he does not seem afraid, and in particular, does not seem afraid of making people mad on his own side in order to try new things out.” 

In a future national campaign, there will be something for everyone to like—and dislike—about Newsom across the political spectrum. 

JB Pritzker to Sign Another Landmark Energy Bill 

Then there’s Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, who has mastered the art of making progressive politics look pragmatic. His latest win is a sweeping energy law that sets one of the nation’s largest energy-storage procurement targets, launches a virtual power plant program, expands geothermal incentives, and reopens the door to new nuclear development—all while promising a more reliable, affordable grid for Illinois residents.

In a statement on the bill’s passage, it’s telling that Pritzker’s only mention of climate is in reference to the name of the previous major bill, the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act, passed in 2021. (The bills’ names alone—see the latest one below—show how the political environment has changed in four years.) Instead, he wisely frames the legislation around—what else—affordability. 

“For far too long, private grid operators have been hiking up rates that are making it harder for Illinois families to pay their utility bills,” Pritzker said. “Illinois is taking action to address these concerns and has passed the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act—an important step that will help lower utility bills and make our electrical grid stronger.”

Pritzker’s credibility with the energy and climate community runs deep. He’s shown up in niche forums, like when he delivered a video message to an October summit hosted by the congressional-backed Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition Institute, and he’s demonstrated unusually strong command of complex energy issues. In a 45-minute Volts podcast interview this year, he discussed topics like quantum computing with fluency and accessibility—a real nod to his communication skills. 

Moves Signal Energy Will Be a Top Campaign Issue in 2028

Much will change before the 2028 primary campaign begins in earnest after the 2026 midterms, but it is already clear that these three likely candidates are positioning themselves in distinct ways as they read the political moment and try to anticipate what voters will want two or three years from now.

Shapiro, Newsom, and Pritzker are carving out slightly different lanes, and it is impossible to know which one will resonate most. Each is offering a different path to address energy affordability. What is clear is that framing climate through the lens of affordability is unlikely to be the wrong bet anytime soon.

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