Permitting Reform Is Alive (Maybe?), the U.S. Senate’s in Play and Other Picked-Up Pieces

Picked up pieces while salving the wounds of an embarrassing Red Sox performance in the Bronx this week…

The bipartisan group of senators negotiating a long-sought permitting reform bill released text yesterday to great fanfare. (Here’s a helpful fact sheet and a Canary Media overview of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act.) Clean energy and fossil fuel interests alike expressed support for the bill, which won’t receive a vote in the Senate until November. The GOP is looking for a win to tout on the campaign trail, but a permitting reform bill was never going to fix the toxic environment that threatens Republican majorities. The question for the lame duck, especially with House Democrats, is whether we experience a repeat of the familiar cycle: The party on the verge of taking power holds out until the new Congress to get a “better” bill.

Right on cue, Rep. Jared Huffman, the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee, said yesterday that “November 3rd is coming and we are likely to soon have a far better negotiating position. Folding our hand now or in the lame duck makes no sense when we can keep working on this and, in a few more months, have a much better deal that works for everyone.” This is not the statement of someone trying to pass a bill. The fact that conservative firebrand Mike Lee and climate hawk Sheldon Whitehouse agree on a bill tells you it strikes a balance. My advice? Take the bipartisan win now and fix or build on it in the next Congress. 

With all 400-plus pages made public, we’ve entered a fragile period. Letting a bill hang out there for opponents to batter like a piñata as they dig into the finer details jeopardizes the chances of it becoming law in the lame duck. I’m reminded of 2009, when the backlash to Obamacare gained traction as legislators went home to their districts for August recess and got an earful and misinformation flourished. (Remember death panels?)

The political environment could change dramatically in the next five weeks. I hope senators and the White House are ready with an aggressive communications plan that hammers home the benefits of the agreement, rapidly responds to falsehoods, and floods the media zone with a range of credible messengers. Otherwise, opponents will define the bill and derail years of painstaking negotiations. Proponents also need an ad campaign to sell the bill and set it up for passage in the lame duck. Perhaps Trump Inc. will use some of their millions for the cause, but that’s probably wishful thinking…

Thirty-three days from the election, it sure feels like the Senate is going to join the House in flipping to Democratic control. Susan Collins may defy odds again in Maine, but the red states of Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Kansas, in order of likelihood, are within reach for Democrats. In purple North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper seems to have the race well in hand.

Enjoy a few minutes on the 270towin map playing around with the possible scenarios. Republicans hold a 53-47 edge today, plus JD Vance as tiebreaker, so Democrats need to net four seats. My best guess: Democrats hold Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan while picking up North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska, giving them a 52-48 majority in January…

The 2028 pre-presidential campaign made a stop at Climate Week, as Gavin Newsom and JB Pritzker shared a stage at an America Is All In forum. The pair posed for photos with several mayors but they didn’t shake hands or appear to even make eye contact before participating in separate sessions to tout their records.

One takeaway? Newsom brings rock star energy. You could feel a shift when he walked into the room with his massive entourage (“like 20 people,” said a friend) as many in the audience raced to snap a photo. He tells his version of the California story in a way that sounds primed for a Democratic primary audience. “We’re not in the [climate] goal setting anymore. The what and why is not interesting to me anymore; it’s the how.” I can see him saying this at house parties in New Hampshire next summer. Don’t believe him when he says he won’t run for president if Kamala Harris also launches a campaign. By the way, for those tracking who’s saying “climate change” and who’s not, Newsom isn’t shying away. “I talk about [climate change] all the time,” he said.

While Newsom certainly knows his stuff, Pritzker comes across as a policy wonk, rattling off obscure details about his state. “About 53% of all of our electricity in Illinois is nuclear. When I took office, we were at about 7.5% renewables, and we now, here we are 7 years later, we’ve just about tripled the renewables in our state.” I first noticed Pritzker’s policy depth when he spoke for about an hour on the Volts podcast and reveled in discussing quantum computing. By signing three major climate and clean energy bills, he boasts perhaps the most impressive record of any prospective candidate…

Consider me utterly charmed by Gina McCarthy. The former EPA administrator and White House climate advisor interviewed Pritzker and Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb. As a fellow New Englander, I felt right at home hearing her unmistakable Boston accent, as well as her deadpan sense of humor. She reminded me of one of my aunts. “You’re such a young guy, I’m so envious,” she told the 39-year-old Bibb, and, “Your sophistication was quite remarkable and I wish I had it,” with a conspicuously absent “r” in “remarkable.”

After Pritzker said he’d “shut up in a minute” after a long answer, McCarthy quipped “you’re not supposed to shut up,” drawing a chuckle from the crowd. Upon hearing the governor mention the Midwest grid operator, McCarthy said “When you said MISO, I got hungry.”…

As someone in the midst of putting solar panels on his roof, I couldn’t agree more with Chris Hayes’ comments to Heatmap on rooftop solar. Hayes, who’s transformed his house into a nearly net-zero building, said, “It should not cost $42k to put a bunch of solar tiles on your roof” and that “it should take a day” to install and connect them. Preach, Chris, preach. It can take a frustrating six months in the US. Hayes raised the oft-made comparison to Australia, where the timeline is “like a week” and the product is much cheaper…

It’s notable that Brian Schatz, the next number two Senate Democrat and Chuck Schumer’s likely successor, is a carbon removal hawk. He made a point of stopping by a Carbon Removal Alliance event during Climate Week to give opening remarks. This comes as a United Nations report last month called for carbon removal to pair with emissions reductions. The Natural Resources Defense Council also released a pro-CDR paper this week that could help win more support from skeptical climate activists …

Many of us find Chris Wright deeply frustrating for shunning renewables and spewing misinformation, but I admit I appreciate his happy warrior vibe and willingness to walk into hostile environments. Too many officials on both sides of the aisle shy away from debating ideas. Not Wright. The latest example came at the Heatmap House interview last month with Rob Meyer. Meyer brilliantly navigated the conversation, almost like a prosecutor leading a witness to a conclusion; he pinned Wright down on a statement and then used that admission to press the next point.

Wright knew what he was getting into and was game for it. He deserves credit for that, if not much else. He’s a media-savvy spokesperson for the administration, which may or may not have earned him a place in our client media training presentations.

Congrats to erstwhile Politico reporter Josh Siegel on his move to Punchbowl. I fondly recall first working with Josh nearly a decade ago when he wrote his excellent Washington Examiner newsletter. It punched above its weight; few expected such high-caliber reporting on climate and energy from the conservative Examiner. But Josh became a must-read for energy observers. Politico’s loss is Punchbowl’s gain, and kudos to them for filling a gap in their otherwise comprehensive, in-depth Hill coverage. Not a moment too soon, either, with permitting reform bursting into the spotlight this week.

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